The information environment of Armenia and the dynamics of narratives February 9-15

Monitoring analytical report

1. Context

On the eve of the 2026 parliamentary elections, the information environment in Armenia is characterized by high polarization and the growth of hybrid threats. The main trend between February 9-15 is the targeting of political rivals and the consistent reduction of trust in state institutions. The patterns of narrative circulation are closely interconnected with foreign policy developments, in particular, the “Trump Route” (TRIPP) and border security issues.

Our research team predicts that as the elections approach, the topics of “existential threat” and “foreign influence” will become the main driving force of information flows.

Summary statistics

Narrative (in descending order)	Main cast	Facebook	Telegram	YouTube	TikTok	General
1. Discrediting competitors	RA media platforms	87	86	139	26	338
2. Borders and trade	RA media platforms	39	92	156	18	305
3. Armed Forces	RA media platforms	28	95	122	24	269
4. Elections and the Central Election Commission	RA media platforms	76	111	70	7	264
5. Europe and Armenia	RA media platforms	35	68	144	8	255
6. Energy and infrastructure	RA media platforms	18	75	106	20	219
7. Existential threat	RA media platforms	23	29	143	13	208
8. Church and State	RA media platforms	19	58	106	8	191
9. PEACE AND TRIPP	RA media platforms	42	88	10	0	140
10. External influence	RA media platforms	14	18	59	9	100
GENERAL		381	720	1055	133	2289

2.1. Analysis of narratives and their frequency

Top trend of the week is “Discrediting competitors” (narratives that attempt to discredit political opponents, accuse them of crimes, treason, or conspiracies). This narrative is in a dominant position 338 items. This is due to the aggressive phase of the pre-election campaign, where political forces use mutual accusations of “treason” and “corruption”. For example, legal actions taken against opposition figures are presented as political repression, which is intended to cast doubt on the fairness of the electoral process.

Second key theme “Borders and Trade” (Allegations regarding the borders of the Republic of Armenia, import-export and economic dependence) (305 items) The narrative emphasizes Armenia’s economic dependence on Russia and the decline in foreign trade. The analyses indicate that the neutralization of the gold re-export factor led to a 29% drop in indicators, which is interpreted as a failure of economic policy.

“Armed Forces” (Messages that negatively represent or discredit the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia)(269 items)The narrative continues to be targeted. The public display of defensive fortifications by Defense Minister Suren Papikyan and its criticism have been particularly actively circulated. An assertion is made that such propaganda videos reveal military secrets and jeopardize the country’s defense capabilities for the benefit of pre-election PR.

Analysis of the other 7 narratives:

Elections and the Central Election Commission (distrust in the electoral process and the Central Election Commission or allegations of election fraud)– 264 items. They focus on the possibility of electoral fraud and abuse of administrative resources. For example, criminal charges for obstructing citizens’ freedom of will in the November elections the works։
Europe and Armenia (narratives about European institutions and the role of the EU)– 255 items. Western funding and monitoring missions are presented as biased forces. The 12 million euros in support provided by the EU is interpreted as an intervention.
Energy and infrastructure (misinformation claims about power grids, energy security and infrastructure) – 219 items. Emphasis is placed on dependence on Rosatom and safety issues at the Metsamor nuclear power plant.
Existential threat (claims in which electing a political force is presented as a threat to the state’s existential or national security)– 208 items. It is noted that Armenia is viewed not as a sovereign state, but as a governed political territory, where elections serve not as a real choice, but as a formal confirmation of already made decisions.
Church and state (Armenian Anarratives emerging around the relationship between the Rachel church and the government) –191 items: News about criminal prosecutions against clergymen, which are spread on Telegram as an “attack on national values,” predominate.
Peace and TRIPP (Emerging narratives around the peace process and Trump’s path)– 140 items. “The Trump Way” (TRIPP) qualifies as an American project in favor of Azerbaijan and Turkey.
External influence(messages presenting political forces or figures as agents of foreign influence)– 100 items. AppliedThe term “agent of influence” is used to label politicians who serve “hostile theses.”

2.2. Analysis of narrative intersections

Several major cross-cutting issues were observed this week. The first intersection is the “Peace Process” and “Borders/Trade”. In particular, TRIPP is presented as a transit corridor project that will connect Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, bypassing Russia and Iran.

The second important intersection “Church and State” and “External influence” is among the themes. The steps taken against the Church are interpreted as an externally dictated agenda aimed at weakening Armenian identity. This narrative is closely coupled with accusations of “serving Turkish-Azerbaijani interests.”

2.3. Platform Analysis

YouTube (1055 items) is the main platform where analytical discussions take place. Telegram (720) is used for operational news and leaks. On Facebook (381) official statements prevail, and on TikTok (133) we observe emotional short videos.

2.4. Actor analysis

1. RA media platforms and media outlets. This group generates the lion’s share of content. The media often acts as a mouthpiece for political forces, ensuring the wide dissemination of narratives.

2. Anonymous and/or de-identified information websites. They are actively spreading misinformation and “fake news” aimed at sowing panic.

3. Politicians and actors. This group is the main source of narratives, whose speeches become the basis of media streams.

3. Time dynamics

Narrative	Monday.	Tue.	Dry.	Five.	Friday.	Sat.	Sun.	Quantity
1. Discrediting competitors	31	61	112	72	31	22	9	338
2. Borders and trade	68	72	40	39	69	12	5	305
3. Armed Forces	39	37	76	51	33	24	9	269
4. Elections and the Central Election Commission	29	14	93	44	46	22	16	264
5. Europe and Armenia	33	46	49	33	76	14	4	255
6.Energy	15	70	38	39	41	12	4	219
7. Existential threat	21	33	40	41	44	22	7	208
8. Church and State	11	24	23	47	30	22	34	191
9. PEACE AND TRIPP	36	31	27	21	11	12	2	140
10. External influence	9	17	34	15	12	10	3	100
GENERAL	292	405	532	402	393	172	93	2289

4. Conclusions and findings

Escalation of information warfare. The analysis of 2289 posts shows that the information field fully serves pre-election purposes. “Discrediting competitors” has become the No. 1 agenda.
Targeting institutions.The discrediting of the armed forces and the Church is systematic.:
External factor manipulation. TRIPP and Western influence are used as a tool՝ To scare voters with the “loss of sovereignty.”
Actors’ synchronization. The media simultaneously and systematically promote targeted narratives, creating a closed information environment where the audience receives information that aligns with their own views.

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The monitoring was conducted by the “Media Diversity Institute” NGO (MDI)

The report has been developed.“Methodology for monitoring the 2026 parliamentary elections of the Republic of Armenia” Automated data collection and report development were carried out using artificial intelligence tools:

Letsdata The digital monitoring tool was used to collect primary source data,
and Claude, NotebookLM and Gemini tools for generating reports.

The analysis is based on 250 pre-selected sources (same as actors) on the list. The process was accompanied by professional supervision, with the participation of a monitoring specialist and a data collection specialist, to ensure reliability.

Armenia -- RFE/RL Microphone on a stand, Yerevan, 27Feb2025

STATEMENT

Over the past week, a wave of targeting and defaming Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Armenian Service through social media posts has been observed, which is highly concerning from the perspective of ensuring freedom of expression in the country. While this campaign had started earlier, it intensified significantly after some high-ranking officials and their supporters made accusations against the media.

In this regard, the Facebook posts by Arayik Harutyunyan, the Chief of Staff to the RA Prime Minister, Ruben Rubinyan, the Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, and Artur Hovhannisyan, the Secretary of the “Civil Contract” parliamentary faction, are particularly noteworthy. In these posts, they specifically accuse RFE/RL’s Armenian Service of disseminating fake news or biased reporting, and also question the professionalism of the media.

Many of those who have joined the criticism have reserved the right to instruct the editorial office, going so far as telling them who should be invited for interviews, what questions should be posed, or why a comment from an opposition figure, which drastically contradicts the official position, is published.

This is nothing more than a reprehensible attempt to interfere with editorial freedom—something that cannot be tolerated either by the media or the broader journalistic community, regardless of their political leanings. This is particularly the case given that RFE/RL’s Armenian Service has proven through its work that it is open to presenting opposing views and ideas, as well as addressing and correcting its possible flaws.

Meanwhile, in this case, instead of tolerating and accepting criticism, eliminating the identified flaws, and countering opponents with their own arguments, high-ranking government representatives are, in fact, turning their “fire” on the editorial office, which is one of the leading media outlets in terms of rich experience and traditions in quality journalism in the Armenian media field. This is especially unacceptable in light of the current circumstances, when quality media are objectively going through difficult times, facing serious financial and political issues.

We, the undersigned journalistic organizations, observing that the recent publications that have prompted the targeting of RFE/RL’s Armenian Service and the making of unfounded accusations against it concern matters of public significance, and that attempts to hinder their coverage by targeting any media are unacceptable, call on:

government representatives to put an end to the practice of orchestrating campaigns to discredit this and any other media, and resolve information disputes and express disagreements on the same platforms, by using the opportunities for refutation or response;
the media to resist political pressure, while ensuring pluralism and contributing to the exercise of citizens’ right to be informed;
the society to consistently demand that the authorities stay true to democratic values, respect freedom of expression, and display tolerance towards criticism, especially when dealing with media that maintain high professional standards.

COMMITTEE TO PROTECT FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION

YEREVAN PRESS CLUB

MEDIA INITIATIVES CENTER

MEDIA DIVERSITY INSTITUTE-ARMENIA

PUBLIC JOURNALISM CLUB

JOURNALISTS’ CLUB “ASPAREZ”

“JOURNALISTS FOR THE FUTURE” NGO

“JOURNALISTS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS” NGO

GORIS PRESS CLUB

Why Are There No Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh?

This report examines the situation for ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh for the period starting with the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and through the Azerbaijani military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 and its aftermath. Through an international fact-finding effort that included hundreds of witness interviews and open-source data, the analysis aims to answer why there are no ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh as of May 2024. It documents how people in Nagorno-Karabakh were intentionally subjected to regular attacks, intimidation, deprivation of basic rights and adequate living conditions, and forced displacement. The evidence demonstrates that the Azerbaijani state acted upon a comprehensive, methodically implemented strategy to empty Nagorno-Karabakh of its ethnic Armenian population and historical and cultural presence.

About the Report

This fact-finding report was jointly prepared by Freedom House, International Partnership for Human Rights, Democracy Development Foundation, Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly – Vanadzor, Protection of Rights without Borders NGO, Law Development and Protections Foundation, and Truth Hounds. Media Diversity Institute conducted the open-source investigation and verification. Talin Hitik provided substantial support editing the summary and the larger report. Anoush Baghdassarian made a significant contribution to editing several sections of the larger report. The methodology and questionnaires were prepared by Democracy Development Foundation, International Partnership for Human Rights, and Truth Hounds. The fact-finding mission was made possible with the support of Open Society Foundations and Freedom House. The fact-finding mission was coordinated by the Democracy Development Foundation.

The report is available on the Freedom House website.

Report summary

Full report

Armenia: Surveillance Bill Threatens Rights

Source: Human Rights Watch

(Yerevan, October 31, 2024) – The Armenian government’s bill for the mandatory installation of video surveillance systems with 24-hour police access throughout the capital, Yerevan, is unjustified and interferes with privacy and other rights, Human Rights Watch said today.

The bill, which passed its first parliamentary review in June 2024, requires private entities in Yerevan to install the cameras and provide police with live feed and access to recordings on demand. Officials have also indicated they intend to use artificial intelligence (AI) video analytics to monitor the recordings.

“Widespread, indiscriminate video surveillance would inevitably lead to unjustified intrusions on privacy and cannot be defended as a measure necessary to improve public security in a democracy,” said Giorgi Gogia, associate Europe and Central Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “Mass surveillance in public spaces would have a chilling effect on fundamental civil and political rights.”

Armenian authorities posted the bill on the government’s website in December 2022, but the government only greenlighted it in April 2024. Parliament is expected to vote on the bill before the end of the year.

Experts Gather to Address Internet Shutdowns and Their Impact on Democracy

Seoul, March 19th – A panel of global experts, convened today to discuss the critical issue of internet shutdowns and their impact on democracy and the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The panel discussions, titled “Access for democracy: Preventing internet shutdowns and strengthening democracy,” was part of the Summit for Democracy Conference held in Seoul on March 18-20, 2024.

The session highlighted the contradiction between the rapid digitization of societies and the continuing practice by some authorities to suspend or throttle internet services during significant national events. With countries representing half of the world’s population heading to polls in 2024, the risk of arbitrary and authoritarian shutdowns looms larger than ever, necessitating a collaborative approach to safeguard internet access.

Speakers, including Kanbar Hossein-Bor from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, Carly Ramsey from Cloudflare, Raman Jit Singh Chima from Access Now, Miraj Chowdhury from Digitally Right Bangladesh, including Artur Papyan from Media Diversity Institute – Armenia, and moderated by Brittany Piovesan of Internews, shared insights and experiences from their work and regions.

Artur Papyan underscored the complexity of identifying internet shutdowns, citing challenges such as differentiating between complete and partial shutdowns, geographical scope, and the technical nuances of internet infrastructure and ISPs, especially in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh war.

The panel discussed various strategies to combat internet shutdowns, from leveraging statements by bodies like the Freedom Online Coalition to Cloudflare’s transparency reports, which provide crucial data for understanding the occurrence of shutdowns.