The Information Environment of the Republic of Armenia and the Dynamics of Narratives May 11 – May 17

Analytical Monitoring Report

1. Context

As the pre-election campaign entered a more active phase, the volume of polarized and emotionally charged content in the information space continued to grow. Most political actors portrayed the elections not merely as a process of changing or maintaining power, but as a decisive choice concerning the country’s security, foreign policy orientation, and future development model. Against this backdrop, mutual accusations, narratives related to external influence, and discrediting rhetoric intensified significantly.

In the context of regional developments, discussions continued around the TRIPP project, the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, and the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Visits by the U.S. delegation and the AECOM company team were presented as practical steps toward the opening of regional communications, while the Russian side questioned the feasibility of the project and linked it to regional security risks.

At the same time, discussions also focused on Turkey’s decision to lift trade restrictions with Armenia and on the approval of new guidelines related to the border delimitation process.

2. Summary Statistics

Narrative and Number of Publications (descending order)	Actor Group	Facebook	Telegram	YouTube	TikTok	Total
1. Discrediting of Opponents	RA media platforms	146	136	55	60	397
2. External Influence	RA media platforms	93	111	65	37	306
3. Energy and Infrastructure	RA media platforms	68	141	41	47	297
4. Armed Forces	RA media platforms	75	122	33	47	277
5. Peace and TRIPP	RA media platforms	84	127	29	8	248
6. Borders and Trade	RA media platforms	58	133	29	12	232
7. Existential Threat	RA media platforms	36	51	97	37	221
8. Elections and the CEC	RA media platforms	95	95	9	9	208
9. Europe and Armenia	RA media platforms	69	93	37	8	207
10. Church and State	RA media platforms	42	71	39	7	159
TOTAL		766	1080	434	272	2552

2.1. Analysis of Narratives and Their Frequency

Key trends and narratives of the week:

1. Discrediting of Opponents (397 publications) – This narrative, characteristic of the pre-election period, continued to maintain a leading position, focusing on harsh and personal attacks against political opponents. Statements made by Nikol Pashinyan targeting Gagik Tsarukyan including “has your tongue grown too long?” and “we’ll drag your brat back from Belarus by the neck”  circulated widely throughout the information space.

The aggressive rhetoric continued following Robert Kocharyan’s speech in Ajapnyak, where he referred to Pashinyan as a “hambal” (“laborer”/used in a derogatory sense). This was followed by publications from pro-government circles and supporters of the Civil Contract party featuring videos and mocking content built around the phrase “hey, hambal.”

Discrediting and sarcastic undertones also accompanied Tigran Avinyan’s publication in which clothing featuring a three-headed dragon image was used to portray opposition forces as a “three-headed demon.”

Such rhetoric demonstrates that the campaign has increasingly shifted toward the sphere of personal insults, mockery, and emotional polarization.

2. External Influence (306 publications) – During the week, the external influence narrative focused on Armenia’s foreign policy balancing and the growing tensions between international actors. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, referring to President Vladimir Putin’s statement on the EAEU, emphasized that Armenia remains a full member of the Eurasian Economic Union as long as no need arises to withdraw.

At the same time, the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on several Russian entities, linking them to alleged attempts to interfere in Armenia’s elections. According to London, these entities were involved in plans to establish pro-Russian organizations in Armenia and exert influence over domestic political processes. The Russian Embassy dismissed the British allegations as “absurd,” framing them as part of Western policy aimed at “interfering in the affairs of sovereign states.”

3. Energy and Infrastructure (297 publications) – The energy narrative gained momentum amid discussions on strategic infrastructure and state oversight. The Russian side once again put forward a proposal for the construction of a high-capacity nuclear power plant in Armenia, presenting it as a long-term foundation for energy security, affordable tariffs, and industrial growth.

At the same time, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that “Electric Networks of Armenia” will soon become state property.

The remaining seven narrative analyses:

4. Armed Forces (277 publications) – The information space circulated unsubstantiated claims suggesting that, in the event of Samvel Karapetyan’s electoral victory, Armenian soldiers could be sent to the Ukrainian front. Such publications appeared to aim at generating public concern and constructing narratives around security threats.
5. Peace and TRIPP (248 publications) – The narrative focused on discussions surrounding the TRIPP project, the opening of regional communications, and the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. During the visit of the U.S. delegation, operational and legal aspects of TRIPP implementation were discussed, while Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan presented the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, emphasizing the importance of regional connectivity.

Discussions continued with the visit of the U.S. company AECOM, whose team initiated field assessment work for the project. The Russian side, meanwhile, criticized Western involvement, stating that the EU does not offer Armenia a tangible alternative in the security sphere. Mikhail Kalugin, head of the Fourth CIS Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, also questioned the prospects of TRIPP, linking it to tensions between the United States and Iran and broader regional distrust.

Within this narrative, Armenian-Turkish normalization was also actively discussed. The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs welcomed Turkey’s decision to lift trade restrictions with Armenia, presenting it as another step toward normalization. At the same time, the government announced plans to approve a set of guidelines related to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border delimitation process, which was also framed as part of broader regional settlement efforts.

6. Borders and Trade (232 publications) – The narrative focused on regional economic connectivity, trade dependencies, and market regulation issues. The information space circulated a thesis on the imbalance in Armenian-Turkish trade, noting that imports from Turkey reach approximately USD 100 million, while Armenia’s exports to Turkey remain at a minimal level.

Within this narrative, attention was also drawn to a statement by the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Armenia, according to which, henceforth, the sale of Armenian-produced goods via Wildberries will require a certificate of origin.

7. Existential Threat (221 publications) – During the campaign period, both pro-government and opposition actors continued to frame the elections as a decisive choice between survival and collapse, peace and war.
8. Elections and the CEC (208 publications) – Discussions surrounding the pre-election process mainly concerned allegations of electoral violations, actions by law enforcement bodies, and campaign activities.

The “Bright Armenia” party launched its campaign in front of the building of the Supreme Judicial Council, framing European integration not as an external geopolitical orientation but as the implementation of “European standards.”

The information space widely covered electoral bribery-related criminal cases and published recordings. The Anti-Corruption Committee reported instances of alleged material inducements offered to voters by representatives of the “Strong Armenia” party, while the party’s representatives insisted that these referred to lawful employment and registered staff. In this context, searches were also conducted at the Spitak office of the “Armenia” Alliance.

Attention was also drawn to unconventional campaign activities: the “I’m Against Everyone” movement organized a symbolic “water-beating” protest at Swan Lake.

Simultaneously, Armen Tatoyan, leader of “Wings of Unity,” released a recording alleging that students were being forced to participate in the Civil Contract party’s campaign, which also became a subject of active discussion in the information space.

9. Europe and Armenia (207 publications) – The narrative focused on Armenia’s European orientation and EU political support. EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos stated that only the Armenian people can decide the country’s future, and that Europe will support the chosen path.

At the same time, the information space included interpretations in which European integration was presented not as an independent political choice, but as a “veil” for regional realignments and integration with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Within this framing, deeper European cooperation was associated with external control, economic dependency, and risks of “Turkic-oriented” integration.

10. Church and State (159 publications) – During a meeting at the Mother See between Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II and cultural figures, attention was given to the socio-political situation in Armenia, as well as what was described as a “concerning trajectory” in Church-state relations.

2.2. Analysis of Narrative Intersections

The “Elections and the CEC” narrative most frequently intersected this week with the “Discrediting of Opponents,” “Existential Threat,” and “External Influence” narratives. For instance, the elections were framed as a choice between “peace and war,” while political opponents were subject to harsh insults and reciprocal accusations. In parallel, narratives concerning external influence circulated widely, including claims about alleged Russian interference in Armenia’s elections and assertions regarding the influence of Western actors.

The “Peace and TRIPP” narrative intersected with the “Borders and Trade” narrative in the context of discussions surrounding Turkey’s lifting of trade restrictions with Armenia and the opening of regional communications. Debates around the TRIPP project and the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative were accompanied by claims regarding imbalances in Armenian-Turkish trade, where economic integration was also framed as part of broader regional geopolitical realignments.

2.3. Platform Analysis

• Telegram (1,080 publications) – During the monitoring period, Telegram served as the primary platform for the dissemination of the “Peace and TRIPP” (248) and “Borders and Trade” (232) narratives.
• Facebook (766 publications) – Facebook was most actively used for the “Discrediting of Opponents” (397) and “Elections and the CEC” (208) narratives.
• YouTube (434 publications) – The platform was dominated by discussions related to the “External Influence” (306) and “Existential Threat” (221) narratives.
• TikTok (272 publications) – TikTok was mainly used for short-form videos and emotionally charged content, primarily focused on the “Discrediting of Opponents” and electoral narratives.

2.4. Actor Analysis

• RA media platforms and news outlets – The most active group, providing both official and alternative coverage across all narrative categories.
• Anonymous and/or unidentified information websites – These actors are particularly active on Telegram, emphasizing the more critical dimensions of the external influence narrative.
• Political figures and actors – Political actors use social media to advance their own campaigns, construct narratives aimed at discrediting opponents, and exert emotional influence on voters.

3. Chronological Dynamics

Narrative	11.05	12.05	13.05	14.05	15.05	16.05	17.05	Total
1. Discrediting of Opponents	37	42	53	69	117	39	40	397
2. External Influence	32	48	55	41	77	28	25	306
3. Energy	33	46	49	43	50	42	34	297
4. Armed Forces	48	42	28	35	65	35	24	277
5. Peace and TRIPP	25	61	61	48	31	13	9	248
6. Borders and Trade	10	27	128	37	23	6	1	232
7. Existential Threat	25	32	55	37	37	21	14	221
8. Elections and the CEC	16	32	70	39	28	8	15	208
9. Europe and Armenia	87	29	19	19	29	21	3	207
10. Church and State	37	16	15	20	23	34	14	159
TOTAL	350	375	533	388	480	247	179	2552

4. Conclusions and Key Findings

1. Political discourse increasingly shifted toward a field characterized by personal insults, mockery, labeling, and emotional polarization. At the same time, such content particularly short videos, offensive statements, and satirical segments received higher levels of engagement and wider dissemination on social media. A number of political actors focused on content that spreads more rapidly and generates stronger emotional reactions across digital platforms.
2. The electoral process continued to be framed as an existential and security-related choice. Both pro-government and opposition actors constructed their campaign narratives around dichotomies such as “peace or war,” “survival or non-survival,” and “preservation or loss of statehood.” This framing contributed to sustained social tension and an atmosphere of fear.
3. Discussions surrounding regional connectivity, the TRIPP project, Armenian-Turkish relations, and border delimitation demonstrated that economic and infrastructure-related topics are no longer treated as separate from security and sovereignty issues in public discourse. The same processes were simultaneously presented by different actors either as opportunities for peace and development or as risks of dependency and renewed concessions.

The monitoring was conducted by the “Media Diversity Institute” (MDI) informational NGO.

The report was developed in accordance with the methodology for monitoring the 2026 parliamentary elections in the Republic of Armenia. Data collection and report generation were carried out using AI-powered tools:

•  the Letsdata digital monitoring tool was used for collecting primary source data,
• while Claude, NotebookLM, and Gemini were used for report generation.

The analysis is based on a pre-selected list of 250 sources (i.e., actors). The process was accompanied by professional oversight, involving a monitoring specialist and a data collection specialist, to ensure reliability.