Information Environment of Armenia and Narrative Dynamics – May 25-31

Analytical Monitoring Report

1. Context

In the final week of May, political competition in the information space continued to be characterized by personal attacks, mutual accusations, and discreditation campaigns. Discussions surrounding the elections were accompanied by debates over the actions of law enforcement agencies, public trust in the electoral process, and the legitimacy of the elections.

Statements regarding the possibility of Armenia’s withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the future of Russian gas supplies, migration-related privileges, and international assistance framed the political choice not only as a matter of foreign policy orientation, but also as a question of security and economic stability.

Against this backdrop, discussions related to the peace process, the Republic Day military parade, the TRIPP initiative, and the issue of the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis were also incorporated into domestic political narratives and became part of the broader political contestation.

2. Summary Statistics

2.1. Analysis of Narratives and Their Frequency

Weekly Key Trends and Narratives

1. Discrediting Opponents (378 items) - This narrative maintained its clear leading position throughout the week. Within this framework, a series of publications discrediting Ararat Mirzoyan gained wide circulation, alleging that he responded to a question regarding prisoners of war with the phrase “tsngl aretsik” (loosely translated as “you are making a fuss”). Later, Mirzoyan clarified that the video had been circulated in an edited and shortened form, and that the phrase in question referred to journalists’ continuous questioning rather than the issue of prisoners. At the same time, public statements by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continued to include personal insults directed at Gagik Tsarukyan. Criticism was also directed at Artur Osipyan, who along with former authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh was portrayed as part of a “pseudo-elite.”

2. Foreign Influence (374 items) - The items primarily focused on statements concerning Armenia’s foreign policy orientation and its potential implications. Russian officials issued warnings regarding security and socio-economic risks, including discussions on the possible revision of existing migration privileges for Armenian citizens residing in Russia. At the same time, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia does not intend to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), emphasizing the importance of making effective use of the opportunities available within the framework of the organization.

3. Elections and the Central Electoral Commission (350 items) - Discussions centered on the arrest of Artur Osipyan, which a number of civil society organizations and public actors framed as a measure undermining public trust ahead of the elections. Reactions were also recorded regarding searches and arrests of members of the “Strong Armenia” party on charges of electoral bribery. Lawyers and representatives of the political force argued that the rights of detainees to legal protection were being violated. The party “Unity Wings” also became a subject of discussion in relation to its campaign financing. At the same time, the “Alliance” party announced its withdrawal from the electoral race. In the context of international reactions to the elections, Donald Trump expressed his “full and unequivocal support” for Nikol Pashinyan. Meanwhile, Maria Zakharova, the official spokesperson of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the Armenian side had unofficially informed Moscow about the undesirability of including several Russian citizens in the election observation mission.

Remaining Seven Narratives - Analysis

4. Peace and TRIPP (315 items) - A significant share of the items focused on the framework agreement on the strategic cooperation initiative “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) between Armenia and the United States.

5. Church and State (299 items) - The items were largely limited to the congratulatory message of His Holiness Garegin II, Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians, on the occasion of the Republic Day.

6. Energy and Infrastructure (292 items) - Discussions mainly centered on Armenia’s energy dependency and the governance of strategic infrastructure. Russian and Belarusian officials stated that, in the event of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU, the country could face a rise in market gas prices and a loss of at least 14% of GDP, while alternative gas supply scenarios were described as “unrealistic.”

7. Existential Threat (291 items) - At the end of May, this narrative was notably shaped by discussions surrounding the alleged return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis to Armenia.

Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan described these claims as a product of “distorted imagination” and manipulation of public sensitivities, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan argued that attempts to introduce this issue into the domestic agenda run counter to national interests.

8. Borders and Trade (289 items) - This narrative was shaped by both economic and border-related developments. Attention was drawn to the decision of the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) to temporarily restrict imports of certain agricultural products from Armenia starting May 30, which was interpreted as a development affecting Armenian-Russian economic relations. At the same time, Prime Minister Pashinyan’s statements regarding the upcoming delimitation process further intensified discussions on border-related issues.

9. Armed Forces (285 items) - On May 28, a noticeable increase in activity was recorded within this narrative due to the Republic Day military parade. Discussions focused both on official messaging regarding the modernization of the armed forces, the development of the defense industry, and domestically produced weaponry, and on statements made by Ruben Vardanyan from a prison in Baku. He criticized the holding of the military parade amid the continued detention of prisoners of war, contrasting this with Prime Minister Pashinyan’s emphasis on investments and achievements in the military-industrial complex.

10. Europe and Armenia (221 items) - The narrative was shaped by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement during his campaign speech in Garni, where he emphasized that the question of Armenia’s membership in the EU or the EAEU should be decided by the people, framing it as a strategic national choice.

2.2 Narrative Intersections Analysis

At the end of May, the most prominent intersections were observed between the “Discrediting Opponents” and “Elections and the Central Electoral Commission (CEC)” narratives. A significant number of publications related to the electoral process were accompanied by accusations against political opponents and attempts to undermine their reputation and legitimacy.

Reports on electoral violations, arrests, and actions by law enforcement bodies were frequently framed not only as legal proceedings, but also as instruments of political struggle.

A clear interconnection was also observed between the “Foreign Influence” and “Energy and Infrastructure” narratives. Statements concerning the EAEU, Russian gas supplies, migration privileges, and European integration collectively formed a unified interpretative framework, in which foreign policy orientation was presented as a decision directly linked to economic and social consequences.

Thus, questions of geopolitical alignment increasingly evolved into broader debates on welfare and national security.

2.3. Platform Analysis

• Telegram (1,250 items) - The primary platform for disseminating the “Peace and TRIPP” (181) and “Armed Forces” (154) narratives.
• Facebook (1,189 items) - The leading platform for the “Discrediting Opponents” (210) and “Elections and the CEC” (143) narratives.
• YouTube (354 items) - Continues to serve as a central platform for analytical content.
• TikTok (301 items) - Recorded increased activity in the dissemination of the “Foreign Influence” narrative.

2.4. Actor Analysis

• Armenian media platforms and news outlets - This group remains dominant, ensuring the primary flow of information across all ten narratives.
• Anonymous and/or unverified information websites - Particularly active on Telegram, where they disseminate publications related to border issues and energy security.
• Political actors and public figures - Actively use TikTok and Facebook to enhance their visibility and target political opponents, primarily through campaign-oriented messaging.

3. Temporal Dynamics

4. Conclusions and Findings

1. Strategic transformation of the TRIPP project. The sharp spike in activity recorded on May 26 (195 posts in a single day) indicates that the TRIPP project is no longer perceived in the information space as a distant prospect, but rather as a tangible geopolitical instrument accompanied by concrete legal agreements.
2. There is an increasing interconnection between different narratives. Topics such as external influence, elections, security, and the discrediting of political opponents frequently intersect, creating an information environment in which political processes are framed as a “fateful choice” between peace and war, security and threat, and sovereignty and external influence.
3. The analysis of information flows shows that, in the competition for public attention, messages based on fear, indignation, insult, or threat have become the most widespread and engaging.

The monitoring was conducted by the “Media Diversity Institute” (MDI) informational NGO.

The report was developed in accordance with the methodology for monitoring the 2026 parliamentary elections in the Republic of Armenia. Data collection and report generation were carried out using AI-powered tools:

•  the Letsdata digital monitoring tool was used for collecting primary source data,
• while Claude, NotebookLM, and Gemini were used for report generation.

The analysis is based on a pre-selected list of 250 sources (i.e., actors). The process was accompanied by professional oversight, involving a monitoring specialist and a data collection specialist, to ensure reliability.